Thursday, August 12, 2021

It's hard to keep up!

 A couple of weeks ago I started to write some thoughts about the new surge of covid racing across the country. The opening paragraph was good enough so that some might read further. That done, I realized it was already old news. I started again, and then again. This scourge is moving too fast. It’s hard to get a firm grip on its reality. It’s hard to keep up!

We thought we had it licked a couple of months ago, didn't we? We were on track to vaccinate enough people to be close to herd immunity, and then we weren’t. The virus and its mutations are doing what viruses do. The problem is that not enough people are doing what people are supposed to do to beat the virus at its own tricks.

The fault, dear people, is not in our stars, but in ourselves…[i] A little over 70% of our citizens are partially vaccinated, which months ago we thought would be sufficient, we now need about 90% now. Why? Because of the large numbers of Americans who are not willing to take a little effort needed to help the country overcome this pandemic. Some state governors are making crazy political decisions rather than healthcare decisions. We know that masks reduce the spread of the virus to others, or get it ourselves. We know that the more unvaccinated people congregate with others who are unvaccinated, the more the virus spreads and the more the virus mutates. And yet, the governors are telling their people that there will be no mask mandates or vaccine mandates.

For some reason, the idea of wearing a mask to fight a virus pandemic is now an affront to one’s freedom. Somehow, the idea of getting vaccinated is considered an affront to our ability to make a choice of whether or not we should help stop the spread. It is about as un-American as one can get. Some people can be exempted from vaccination for legitimate medical reasons, and there are some with religious reasons for not getting immunized, but they are few and far between.

Maybe the blame is in our stars. Too many TV and radio talk show star commentators are spreading bad information, raising doubts about the efficacy, and making healthcare a political issue.

The slanted news opinions and the numbers don’t often match. But, just for the hey of it, let’s look at one set of facts. Let’s compare now to a year ago.

Cases

May 15, 2020

May 15, 2021

August 9, 2021

7 day moving Average

23,000

29,000

235,000

Deaths

1446

604

552


Today, twenty states report over 200 deaths per 100,000 population because of the virus, NY at 276, Massachusetts at  263, while Hawaii has only 38, and Vermont only 42 deaths per 100K. The Delta variant is responsible for 87% of the new deaths. One of the first steps to solving a problem is to ask what changed or what is different. Most of the states reporting high death rates from the virus have low vaccination rates or forbid mask mandates. Duh! Vermont for example was quick to urge people to stay home if they could, to wear a mask out of the home, and to wash hands frequently. It was also quick to shut down restaurants and stores. The people followed the directions well. Institutional programs worked well and hospital censuses remained low.

The lack of positive leadership by some state governors isn’t the only reason for the new surge, but they play a significant role in a disappointing response to a national emergency. You would think that using a vaccine to fight a virus is something new. Schools in Florida require immunization for at least seven different diseases. Texas requires immunization for seven different diseases. Mississippi requires vaccination for at least seven diseases. And yet, political leaders are mandating that there be no public health measures to quell a raging pandemic. In the meantime pediatric ICUs are full, hospitals can’t take on new emergency patients and we expose kids exposed to a virus that can kill them. We don’t have polio because we vaccinate against it. We don’t have measles because we vaccinate against it. We don’t have diphtheria because we vaccinate against it. And yet, for god knows what reason, we have mothers and fathers in the streets protesting against a vaccine that could save their child’s life. It’s hard to keep up.

 I went to a busy grocery store last week. All the customers wore masks. All the clerks and other workers wore masks. Except for younger children, most people in our area are fully vaccinated.

People got in the habit of wearing masks during the last year and a half and continue to do so out of an abundance of caution. Now that the Delta variant is wreaking havoc across the state and the nation, we are under a mandate to wear a mask when we are out and about. I haven’t heard one person say that it is an infringement on their freedom or that wearing a mask is a way for the government to control us. But hey, I know we live on the left coast. In California, all teachers must be vaccinated or suffer through constant testing. Anyone who has had a seven-foot Qtip pushed up his or her nose knows that the vaccine shot is easier. Well, it felt like seven feet!

Have we become a nation wherein each person considers his or her opinion as valid as the next person’s? That has never been true. The notion that you or I can read about two pieces of scientific data and come to our own conclusion about which is best for us or our family is ludicrous. I may be able to come to better conclusions about my area of expertise, but not about another’s area of expertise. My years-old penchant for history doesn’t make me an expert epidemiologist? So why don’t we listen to the experts? Dr. Fauci has led the NIAID for 37 years, the agency that deals with allergies and infectious diseases like AIDS, Ebola, and other illnesses. For whatever reason, I value his views on covid more than yours or mine.

The data changes every day so science changes every day. TV stars cast doubt on the efforts to curb the virus. Schools in some states mandate masks others forbid them. Some states are opening slowly while others are wide open. Some states can brag about being well vaccinated while others are proud that they aren’t. In some states, hospitals are at capacity, at a state-wide breakdown point and the governor says not to get excited, everything is OK.

 It’s hard to keep up!

 



[i] With thanks to the Bard, Julius Caesar, Act 1, scene 2