Friday, April 17, 2020

America BC & AC



 If one virus can wipe out the entire economy in a matter of weeks and shut down societies, then that is proof that our societies are not very resilient. It also shows that once we are in an emergency, we can act and can change our behavior (sic) quickly.” [ii] If America, the world, is not different after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, then we will not have learned anything from the experience. The most realistic timelines for starting the trek back to a working economy and normal lifestyle are months away. Some political leaders would like to declare the country open within a week or two.

There is good reason to want the country to open again: the economy is likely in a recession, stores are closed, factories shuttered and twenty-two million people have filed for unemployment. We have heard warnings for years that most families could not withstand a $400 emergency expense. Many thought that to be hyperbole at best. Now we see thousands of cars lined up at food banks because they have no money to feed themselves and their families, much less to pay the rent and make the car payment. The government has punched trillions of dollars directly into the bank accounts of millions of people, created forgivable loans for businesses that will keep people on the payroll, and it isn’t nearly enough. Trillions more are needed, and quickly. It will take years for the economy to recover to its former all-time highs. In a matter of weeks, the virus created an abyss not seen since the Great Depression.

The pandemic shines “a very bright light on the real weaknesses and foibles in our society.”[iii] What we see is a nation unprepared for large-scale surprise events. We see hospitals, overrun with patients, lacking basic protective equipment for nurses and doctors. We see a lack of tests to determine who has the virus. As the sickness and death spread from large cities to the less densely populated urban and rural areas, we wonder how they will handle the coming tsunami of cases. In the last fifteen years, 170 rural hospitals have closed, 19 last year, and eight this year, even during the height of the virus attack. We see nursing homes and assisted living establishments that are overrun by the virus and deaths mounting quickly but not counted in the statistics. We see Veteran Administration hospitals with mounting deaths each day. We see governors adlibbing fifty-plus approaches to contain and mitigate the spread of the virus. We find sick people holding off going to the emergency room because they have no health insurance. We see a nation where healthcare insurance is tied to employment, and with a loss of work, comes a loss of insurance.  We see patients wanting to try untested and dangerous drugs they hear about on television. We see Blacks contacting the virus and dying from it at six times the rate of Whites. We see nursing homes and senior living facilities become Petri dishes for the virus resulting in a high percentage of deaths. We see the fragility of our nation.  

Emergencies require quick, almost automatic responses, the result of good planning and consistent training. We all remember the fire drills when we were in school. After a few drills each fall, we all knew where to go when the alarm rang. If a real fire had occurred, the effort would have saved lives. Would that we could have that level of security when an epidemic starts to take over our country. How will we react if there is a chemical attack on the country? How will we behave when we are told to shelter in place? How will our government react to the next national crisis?

We knew this pandemic was coming. We had US scientist in China telling us about it. We saw the results of China taking six days to tell their people about the virus and to take action to confine it to Wuhan. The city of twenty million people was shut down almost immediately. Warnings about the spread of the virus came from military intelligence, the CIA, the WHO, and a number of US security agencies, and several health agencies, including the CDC and NIH. At the highest levels, the warnings were ignored for 27 days or more.

Dr. Fauci[iv] held a closed-door-session with most of the nation’s governors at their annual meeting in January, at which he warned them of the oncoming invisible enemy. Many left the meeting acutely aware that they must take immediate action in their states. Others chose to ignore most of the warnings and failed to implement recommended actions. One has to wonder why a national crisis is limited to state action rather than a federal response. A key step to dampen the spread of a virus is to keep people at least six feet away from each other and keeping people at home. Some governors refused to take even that simple step to protect their citizens even as hundreds and thousands of deaths mounted. This everybody-on-their-own approach to a national emergency is ill-begotten. The result of our haphazard approach is that the US has the most confirmed cases of the virus, has tested less than two percent of the population, and has more deaths than any other country. We blew it!

The Federal government was not ready for this pandemic. The stockpiles of supplies were inadequate, some were out of date, and the current administrations closed down, refused to fund, the office charged with worrying about pandemics, reduced funding for the CDC, and ignored well-published warnings. Our leaders were reluctant to mount a quick attack on the virus. They are still arguing over the role of the states and the national government, over the use of what national stocks we have in storage. After pleas from governors, the Army Corp of Engineers, specialists in doing big things well and in a hurry, was allowed to help the states set up field hospitals. They did it in a matter of days, not months. When one hospital was no longer needed, they moved it to another state. They showed what a good government agency can do when they are allowed to do it.

Our nation has debated, gently for the most part, about the type of healthcare system we should have. Some believe strongly that a universal single-payer system is the best choice. Others believe just as strongly that our current system is better. The pandemic encourages us to think about what is, what should be, and what could be.

The large hospitals in the virus-centric areas are overwhelmed. We have all seen what happened in New York, Washington, and California. We watched the epidemic move to the Big Easy, on to Mississippi and Georgia, and now into other rural areas. What will happen when the virus starts spreading into areas that have no hospitals or doctors? Rural hospitals are usually small, maybe 25 rooms, with smaller staffs. They have stopped a lot of non-emergency operations and doctor visits. They encourage people to stay at home except for emergencies. These hospitals rely on low paying Medicare and Medicaid payments to survive. We expect hospitals, private or non-profit, forced to exist only if they are commercially viable. Why doesn’t the richest country in the world ensure that people in rural areas have doctors and hospitals?  

A surgeon from New York who recently spent time in a third world country working with Doctors Without Borders was interviewed on TV. He works in an NYC hospital where he tested positive for the virus. He quarantined himself for fourteen days and is back to work. He spoke about the lack of PPEs (Personal Protective Equipment). He said his hospital in New York City resembled those in the third-world conditions, and sometimes worse.  

The federal government has taken the position that they are simply a back up to the states, that the states are responsible for buying their own protective equipment on the world market. At the same time, however, we read story after story about the federal government commandeering planeloads of PPEs purchased by states and cities when they arrive at local airports or other ports of entry. We read about FEMA outbidding states and cities on the open market. We read about a fire department in Massachusetts that was raided by the FBI who took all of the recently acquired PPEs. We read about countries that manufacture PPEs closing their borders to exports. PPEs are essential materials in the fight against novel viruses. If the medical staffs get sick, who will take care of everyone else?

The pandemic is illustrating, every day and in every way, that healthcare is a human right. Doctors and nurses, and first responders, the best in the world, are risking their own lives to help stricken patients who have a right to live. Hospitals are opening the doors to patients regardless of insurance coverage because they were told that the government would reimburse them for their expenses. This scourge lays bare the need for taking a new look at how we distribute healthcare in America. It shows the weaknesses of a commercially driven system rather than a medically driven system. It shows the results of healthcare and healthy living distributed on an income level basis, or a racial basis, or on an age basis.

We want to open the country back up as quickly as possible. The President has encouraged the governors to act as prudently as possible. The problem that exists in every town in the country is that we don’t know who is infected, who is likely to be seriously ill, who had the virus and now has the antibodies to help others get well. We don’t know because the government has not made testing a priority. We should not open any section of the country before we have tested large percentages of the population. Think about the kids returning to school in the fall. Would you let your child enter a classroom of untested kids? Would you let your son or daughter go back to college and live in a virus laboratory dorm? Some governors indicated that most parts of their states should not fully open for business until we have a vaccine for the virus. The list goes on. There is reason to be paranoid.

The President has proposed a framework for opening the economy that is based on good science and medical advice. Not one state in the nation can meet the criteria that must be met before Phase One of three phases can begin. We just don’t have the test kits to measure the degree of the virus in the population. We don’t have a vaccine. We don’t have the measured indicators that we need to go willy-nilly about the next move. For this reason, the President asked the governors to make a judgment about the best time to open their states, if they bothered to close them in the first place. Let’s hope for the best!

We need a deep-dive analysis of our health system and its outcomes. America deserves better than it has and that the lobbyists on K Street are willing to pay our Congress to deliver. It’s not a political party issue anymore, or an economic issue anymore. It’s a healthcare issue, a medical issue, a science issue, and a human issue. We can’t go back to the BC way of doing things.
                  




[ii] Greta Thunberg was Time Magazine’s Person of the Year at age 16. She has been a leader in the drive to improve the climate
[iii] Dr. Anthony Fauci – CSPAN – Interview April 7, 2020
[iv] Dr. Anthony Fauci, MD, is the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a part of the National Institute of Health. He was appointed in 1984. He is the leading American expert on diseases, including epidemic  Dr. Anthony Fauci, MD, is the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a part of the National Institute of Health. He was appointed in 1984. He is the leading American expert on diseases, including epidemic management and control. management and control.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Let's See How It Plays Out!


COVID-19 has killed a lot of people in the last couple of months, it is killing people right now, and will kill more people in the months ahead. It is an invisible enemy. We have two choices: we can follow the advice of the experts or we can ignore them. If we follow scientific advice, fewer people will die in the US.

Twenty plus governors chose to ignore the advice of scientists, and continue to put their citizens at high risk. Some governors acted quickly by shutting down their state. New York City put out the warning early, and it still is suffering hundreds of deaths each day. It is hard to comment on this epidemic without getting a bit wonky. Tolerance appreciated.

We know for sure that the virus spreads from one person to another because of coughing, sneezing, or just breathing. The most effective way to keep the virus from spreading is to keep people away from each other. Duh! And yet, some governors and the national government’s strategy seems to be:  “Let’s see how it plays out.”

The Governor of Florida refused to issue shelter-in-place orders for the entire state until April 1st, when the warnings have been out there since at least early January. His new order exempts religious services from the stay at home order. In New Rochelle, NY the onslaught of cases was traced directly to one infected person who attended synagogue one night. Nearly a third of the cases in Sacramento County, CA are from members of one church. While it canceled church services, it encouraged small group meetings in parishioners' homes. On April 2nd, the Governor of Georgia announced that he was closing down the state because he just learned, the day before, that the virus could spread from one person to another. The Governor of Mississippi says his state is not China and he will not close it down like a communist country. Devin Nunes, a reactionary member of congress from California, went on Fox News to state that closing schools, restaurants, and bars was ridiculous and that we should get people back to work, and kids back in the classroom. Who are these people?

 President Trump extended the call for social distancing until the end of April. He took the recommendations of the scientist who advise him. Their advice is based on their years of experience and the predictions of various statistical models at their disposal. Obviously, the CDC and other governmental agencies and the military have great modeling expertise. But the most frequently mentioned model was developed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)[i]. The model assumes that if every state in the Union enforces a strict shelter in place rule, closes all restaurants and bars, and closes all non-essential businesses, it will reduce the death toll. That is if we did everything perfectly. We haven’t!

Because the Governor of Florida didn’t close all non-essential businesses, order restaurants, and bars closed, close the beaches, or enforce a state-wide shelter in place rule, the model predicts that the number of cases and deaths will peak on May 3rd. It predicts that the state will be short 2,000 ventilators, nearly 1,000 ICU beds, and it points toward 179 deaths on that one day, and 7,000 souls lost by August 4, 2020. Mississippi is projected to have 40 deaths on April 22nd, and over a thousand deaths by August 4th. Georgia cases are predicted to peak on April 25th when the state will be short 1,224 ventilators, 900 ICU beds, and will have 96 deaths that day. It predicts 3,232 deaths by August 4, 2020. The best news we can hope for is that the model is inaccurate on the high side.

Another way to look at it is that Florida will have one death for every 3,000 people in the state, Mississippi with have one death for every 2,987 people. Georgia will have one death for every 1,234 people. California, which shut down early, will have one death per 7,750 people in the state. States that took early action should be more successful flattening the curve of virus cases and deaths.

This epidemic lays bare the underbelly of an inadequate national healthcare system and congers up discussions about the role of government at the national and state levels. Difficult as it may be to imagine, it is not a time for political finger-pointing or blame gaming. That can wait a few months.

The virus hit Wuhan, China with a bang last year. After some fits and starts, the government shut down the city of twenty million people. The US Army, the CDC, NIH, and other medical groups warned that the epidemic was coming. They were basically ignored for months. Most immunologists tell us that when a coronavirus hits, it needs to be dealt with quickly and with a shock and awe strategy at the outset, not months down the road. We didn’t go into immediate shutdown and the virus spread. The President took some important first steps, such as closing the borders to people from China, and then many parts of Europe. But there still is no national strategy to fight the spread of the virus. If there was ever a time when we needed a countrywide strategy, it is now.

While people are sick, hospitalized, and dying, what are the rest of us to do? If we ignore the science we put ourselves in jeopardy. If we follow the science, we shelter in place. What does that mean? The CDC has posted its recommendations. CNN has an informative site on how to coronavirus-proof your home. [ii]

If you are over 70 years old, stay in your house, period. Everyone else should stay at home as well if they are not required to be at work. It is suggested that every house has a disinfecting station outside or in the garage. We use the garage. Anything coming into the house is first wiped down with a Lysol sheet. If it a box from Amazon, it is sprayed with Lysol. Each package of food is wiped down before being taken inside. If you have to go shopping for food or other items, designate one person to be the shopper. It reduces the opportunity for the virus to infect the second person. If you must go outside the house, wear plastic gloves and wipe the handles of the shopping cart. Wipe your credit card or ATM card after each use. Wipe down the inside of the car after you use it. Try to shop at stores that will take an online order and put it in the trunk of your car so that you don’t come in contact with people. Don’t let anyone in your house that doesn’t live there, even your kids and never your grandkids. The list of suggestions goes on. It feels like overload. It is the minimum we should be doing, according to the CDC. Dr. Fauci said that if at the end of the next two or three months we think that they asked us to do too much, and we are still alive, their request was just about right.

The clubhouse in our development is closed, the pool is closed, the gym is closed, the library is closed, the game room is closed, all the meetings are canceled. The local Senior Center is closed for another month or two, at least. All schools are closed for the rest of the year. All the local parks are closed as well as all the equipment in them. All of the state parks are closed as well as the parking lots. The beaches are closed. The streets are pretty much empty. Doctors and other healthcare workers are available by phone, email, or Zoom. It goes on and looks like it might last another couple of months.

We can talk about economics later. We can talk about the response at the county, state, and national level later. We can talk about job loss later, We can talk about the six million people who lost their health insurance in the last two weeks. Right now, our primary job is to not be one of the 240,000 potential deaths between now and August.


[ii] Scottie Andrew, CNN – How to coronavirus-proof your home – March 2020