Thursday, August 17, 2017

THERE ARE TWO TYPES!


Bumper sticker and tee shirt writers have a special knack!  They reduce complicated ideas to one line, two at the most.  This is an especially good one: 

“There are two types of people in this world:
1) those who can extrapolate from incomplete data ….”[i]

Birthers believe President Obama isn’t a natural born citizen, Climate Change Deniers believe fossil fuels don’t speed up climate change, some believe that three million illegal immigrants voted in the last election, others that Trump received the majority of votes.  Not one of these examples is true.  Yet, millions of people believe them based on false and incomplete data.  When confronted with irrefutable evidence to the contrary, they chalk it up to “that’s your education talking.”[ii]  Distrust of “educated elites” is widespread and growing.  “Educated” is now a pejorative for many.  

When we grow up steeped in an insular culture or one that puts down those who don’t look like us, have a different cultural background, or don’t believe what our faith teaches, it’s easy to blame others for our situation.  Factory closings become the result of jobs shipped overseas.  Minorities or immigrants take “our jobs.”  Government regulators conspire to close our coalmines.  When the only truth we have is our own truth, we’re going to feel threatened by other people’s truth.[iii]  We extrapolate all these beliefs from incomplete data.  How did we get this way?

H. L. Mencken said the secret of successful demagoguery is “keep[ing] the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”[iv]  Talk radio is a daily harangue of alarmism designed to create fear.  Cable TV, at both ends of the spectrum is in the business of showing how bad the opposition can be.  Political parties no longer aim to govern, but to deride the opposition.  Newspapers and magazines exhibit a bias reminiscent of the era of Yellow Journalism.  Special interest groups pour money into disinformation campaigns, and false data is ok, “alternative facts” some call them.  We are a divided people who only associate with those with whom we agree, only read newspapers or blogs with which we agree, watch TV news with which we agree, and lack trust in anyone or anything different.  We fear the new and the different.  We don’t trust facts, except those we adopted as our own.  We talk past each other.

It’s easy to understand the fear that permeates a large segment of the country.  If you live in a small rural town that relies on the local factory for jobs, and it closes, you don’t have many options.  You can’t make the mortgage payment, send your kids to college, or trade schools.  You are afraid for the future.  It’s unlikely that you can move to another part of the country and take up a new trade or learn new technical skills.  The market for middle-aged entry-level coders is probably weak.[v]  Your local school district likely didn’t allow you and others to develop new skills in new technologies on an ongoing basis..

Tom Friedman,[vi]  a Pulitzer Prize winning author, points out that technology now grows exponentially, so fast that Moore’s Law needed rewriting.  Technological disruption is normal, but the current speed of change is scary.  We need an education system that changes just as quickly.  We need people educated in the new technologies, with new technologies.  Lifelong learning was never so important as today.

 Traditional K-12 models may not meet the challenges we face.  How many of your local schools have “smart boards” in each classroom?  How many have tablets available for each child?  How many teachers can effectively use this new technology?  It’s been ten years since Apple introduced the iPhone, and it changed the world.  Have schools kept up?  We pour billions of dollars into school systems designed to make everyone college-ready.  The truth is, however, that only 33% of adults have a college degree.[vii]  In ten states, less than 25% of adults have degrees.[viii]  It’s also true that most jobs, even highly skilled ones don’t need a college degree.  Less than 50% of college graduates have jobs in their major field of study.  What path do schools offer the 70% who won’t earn a college degree?  The notion that everyone needs a college education is an extrapolation from incomplete data.

Citizens who are well educated or trained can buy a home, provide for their family, and don’t need demagogues to make them fearful.  We know that because it use to be that way.  Not too long ago our schools met the needs of our nation.  Fifty years later, we are using the same model, with a few tweaks here and there.   

Education is the predicate for our future, yet the United States doesn’t have an agreed upon national strategy for education.  We leave education to 14,000 local school districts.  Common Core developed by state heads of education and governors to bring a common set of expectations for schools was a grass-roots effort.  Too many people, however, listened to the fear mongers and believed it was an attempt by the federal government to take over local schools.  In the last ten years, 87% of job losses went to improved technology; robots.[ix]  Does your local high school teach coding, robotics and other practical vocational courses?  The solar energy industry created 300,000 new jobs in the last few years.  Does your local high school teach solar technology, installation, and maintenance?  Cars now run on batteries.  Does your local school teach battery technology and maintenance? 

We are in the midst of a sea change not unlike the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.  People who are unequipped to meet the challenge are going to be afraid and listen to the demagogues who want to lead them.  Fear will turn into hate, it always does, and we will continue as a divided country.  A total revamping of our educational philosophy and policies might help change the situation.  We need a national strategy, implemented locally, to educate and train all our students, not just the college bound. 



[i] Neil deGrasse Tyson, Hayden Planetarium, NYC
[ii] An Insider’s View: The Dark Rigidity of Fundamentalist Rural America   Shane Trotter Alternet
[iii] Why Is Everyone So Easily Offended?  Dwight Longenecker  Patheos 2017
[iv] H. L. Mencken  In Defense of Women  City Journal
[v] My Father-in-Law Won’t Become a Coder, No Matter What Economist Say Dustin McKissen  Lindedin  2017
[vi] Thanks for Being Late  Thomas Friedman 2016
[vii] Census.gov  Current Population Reports Ryan & Bauman 03/2016

[viii] List of U.S. states by educational attainment  Wikipedia 2016

[ix] Financial Times December 2016