I
don’t know how to code!!! There, I said it, Step 1. There must be a Twelve-Step
program for people like me; “Non-coders Anonymous?” The last time I had
anything to do with code I was working on my Boy Scout First Class badge. We
had to learn to send Morse code with a key and with two flags. A lot has
changed since then.
I
read an article recently that asked a simple question: what is the most important thing we should worry about related to the future of our country.
Assuming that we do a good job reducing greenhouse gases and we are still here
in ten years, it suggested that we should concentrate on AI because it will
change how we live, work and think.
AI
(Artificial Intelligence), in the simple terms I can understand, is a set of
algorithms that allow machines to think and learn in much the same way humans
think and learn. A friend defines artificial intelligence as “when the computer
disobeys the programmer.” At this point, I’m a bit confused because …
If I
can’t code, imagine how trying to understand the world of AI makes me feel. Anything
beyond point-and-click is confusing. Most of us just need to be able to
download an app that will help us get through our day, like counting how many
steps we took this week compared to last week. The more I read about AI,
however, the more I’m intrigued by its goodness and suspicious of its ability
to control everything important. I can’t define the future, but I will know it
when I see it.[i] I’m
convinced that it involves AI for many years before it too is replaced.
Computers
changed the world in a few years and even more quickly with the universal
introduction of Windows for desktops and then laptops. Today, nearly all of us
use computers on a daily basis. Some of us call them telephones, but they really
are just platforms for apps: games, maps, search, and yes, a phone. Somebody
decides what we might find interesting and writes some code that makes the
magic happen. I have all kinds of apps on my phone. I bank on my phone. I pay
bills on my phone. I goggle on my phone too often, I text other people too
much. I use my phone to reserve parking spaces in downtown garages or feed the parking
meters and sometimes hail rideshare drivers to give me a lyft back to the
parking garage. I buy plane tickets on my phone and store my boarding pass on
my phone. Well, you probably do all that too, so you know what I’m getting at.
Most of these things happen because of AI and 5G networks.
To do
all these things, people who code use a “Propensity Model.” The sophisticated
algorithms decide what needs to be learned based on the propensity of previous
actions. Knowing how some people think and make decisions, I’m not sure about
the basic concept of the Propensity Model. Those of you who really understand
the technology of all this can stop laughing at this point
AI
already powers everyday activities, such as the map on your phone that shows a
red line where traffic is slow and for how long. That line is produced by some
magic machine that measures the speed with which phones are moving down the
highway and sending that information to other magic boxes that post the
information on electronic signs along the highway. Grocery stores can eliminate
checkout lines because once you sync your phone to a shopping cart the items
that you put in the cart are added up and charged to your credit card when you
exit the building. I’m not sure how well that operates at the outdoor farmers
market. We use Clipper Cards for rail and subway use. Airline tickets and
boarding passes go directly to your phone – no more paper. Bridge tolls and
some HOV lanes use pictures of your license plate to adjust your Fas Trak or
E-ZPass account or fine you if you aren’t in the system. We experience these
things on a regular basis and don’t think much about them, but they wouldn’t
happen but for AI. The new 5G networks allow all of this computing to happen
100 times faster than the 4G system most of us still use.
A
recent article pointed out that within three years US manufacturing workers
with college degrees will outnumber those without one.[ii] That
has serious implications for workers without a college degree and for those
with low-skill levels. McDonald’s is experimenting with AI-powered kiosks for
ordering and with robots that will cook your happy meal. However, those with
degrees or even advanced degrees aren’t exempt from the effects of AI. Lawyers,
for example, are threatened by AI’s ability to do better research and
write better briefs than humans. Doctors should be nervous about AI’s ability
to do robotic surgeries from an office across the country. Smart walls are
causing an evolution in teaching methods to ripple slowly across the country
and the profession. Innovation is changing the world of work as well as making
it more convenient to get through life.
The
Brookings Institute points out that the concentration of innovation in only a
few areas of the country leaves the heartland with a dearth of new
opportunities. Ninety percent of the nation’s innovation-sector economic growth
in the last few years is concentrated in only five metropolitan areas: Boston,
San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, and Seattle.[iii] As
a result, their share of the innovation employment sits at 23%. The bottom 90%
of metro areas (343) lost one-third of the innovation jobs in the last 12
years. That economic division cannot be sustained if we want equality of
opportunity for all our children.
Most
jobs, as we know them, will go away. We, of a certain age, who saw the high
school diploma give way to the college degree or advanced trade skill
certifications as the basic licenses for a good job is about to see robotics
take away employment opportunities. Politico recently indicated that the
slowness of the US transition to 5G has more to do with the lack of a trained
workforce than with technology. Today we are short at least 20,000 skilled pole
climbers who can install the needed cells.[iv] So,
what to do?
The
most logical place to start is in the PreK-12 school system. It may require nationwide retraining of our teachers to use the new technology. They must
understand coding so they can teach it from the early grades on, be able to use
AI every day in the classroom, communicate with kids using the new technology,
and be comfortable with rapid change. The blackboard gave way to the
greenboards, which gave way to the whiteboard. Those obsolete systems are now giving
way to the whitewall, connected to the internet. If our schools don’t operate in
an AI/5G modality, how will our country make the huge leap that we need to make
to catch up with other countries of the world? It may have taken nearly 120
years to replace the typewriter with the home computer, but yesterday’s
computer is already obsolete. Big changes come about when people take big steps
forward with big ideas. We, as a nation need to take some big steps.
Brookings
Institute suggests that the government develop a competitive program to
identify a few metropolitan areas into which they would pour billions of
dollars for innovative projects, business development, and scientific
development. The idea is that big projects will attract even more companies to
fill the supply chain. The idea is that larger metro areas would encourage
people to stay in their heartland areas and attract people back from coastal cities. This is a novel idea, but a big idea. Can the country still
think big? Do you remember when JFK suggested that we put a man on the moon in
a decade? It galvanized the nation. Would that audacious goal be acceptable
today? We know that Space is the next war zone, yet we scoff at the idea of a
Space Force as a new branch of the armed services. We know that we need to get
gas cars off the road and planes out of the sky, yet we debunk the idea of a
system of fast trains linking major cities of the US. We don’t think big
anymore.
In
1978, 80% of Chinese people lived in rural areas. Today 60% live in urban
areas, where the jobs are located, where innovation takes place, where it is
easier to make a good living. The migration to the cities has left the rural
parts of the country poor, without innovative companies, and with a lack of
jobs. China’s problems are very similar to ours. Could we learn from them?
Their national government has decided that they need to create metropolitan
areas in their heartland.[v] These
will be large urban areas of about 120 million people, almost as large as the
total population of Japan, and larger than most European countries. To make
these large metro areas clean and safe, the government is investing $800
billion in the high-speed rail, so that no one will commute more than 15
minutes to work, they are moving toward autonomous electric vehicles, smart
grid technology, powerful 5G networks, and big data technologies. Homes and
apartments will be built with AI capabilities. Each one will contain appliances
and other objects all tied together with IoT.[vi]
In
2008, China built a 70-mile demonstration line of fast-trains for their Olympic
Games. Since then they have built 15,000 miles of fast-train tracks that
connect the nearly 200 cities of over one million people each. The trains
travel at 180- 200 miles per hour on average. Think of going from New York City
to Chicago in three or four hours, think LA to Chicago in 12-13 hours. Think 35
trains a day from Paris to Nice in about 5-7 hours, think Beijing to Shanghai in
5 hours. The US does not have one mile of fast-train track. We certainly do not
have the technical knowhow to build a new train system. We don’t think big
anymore.[vii]
One
has to wonder what the US must do to train hundreds of thousands of its youth
to become facile with the burgeoning AI technology, how schools and
universities must change what they teach and how they teach it. Technical
schools will change how they train practical skill sets. The government must
set national goals for developing and installing new technologies. We really don’t
have ten or fifteen years to think about it. Our competitors are already well
beyond us.
[i] Mr. Justice Potter Stewart – Jacobellis v. Ohio, 1964
– “I may not be able to define pornography, but I know it when I see it.”
[ii] American
Factories Demand White-collar Eduction for Blue-collar Work – Austen Hufford –
Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2019
[iii] Atkinson, Muro and
Whiton – The case for growth centers: How to spread tech innovation across the
country, December 9, 2019
[vi] The
Internet of Things is a system of interrelated computing devices, mechanical
and digital machines, objects, that are provided with unique
identifiers and the ability to transfer data over a network without requiring
human-to-human or human-to-computer interaction.
[vii] Countries with high-speed trains: Austria, Belgium, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan,
Poland, Portugal, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, United
Kingdom, and Uzbekistan.
