None of my high school or college science teachers would
remember me as a top student. I’m more on the other side of the brain, whichever
that is. I did learn about the scientific method. I learned to trust science. A
class in plane geometry taught me about postulates, theorems, and proofs, using
a prescribed methodology. It irks me a bit when people try to replace science
with personal opinion. I subscribe to the notion that you can have your own
opinions, but not your own alternative facts. The nation’s approach to the
COVID-19 has me flummoxed.
Our leaders at the national, state and local levels don’t
have a united plan to conquer this silent enemy. That is not totally unexpected;
lots of politicians often have lots of opinions. What I find appalling is the
degree to which they ignore science, from one precinct to another. In some cases,
leaders simply ignore the facts in front of them. The devil is always in the
details, but at a macro level, the solution to this pandemic is relatively
simple, and we have the data to prove it.
This virus, for which there is no cure, no vaccine, no
anything, spreads from one person to another. The solution is obvious. Limit
interactions between people, separate people from each other. The progress of
the virus in other countries indicates that early intervention is needed, and
it needs to be at a Shock-and-Awe level. We don’t have a national plan to fight
the virus because we ignored the science. We were late implementing a national
task force. We have scientist who has to correct the President during his
press conferences. We have a few flat-earth governors who refuse to implement
minimum requirements for distancing, for testing, for a scientific approach. We
have a Lt. Governor of Texas that urges older people to go to work and be
willing to die so that the younger cohorts can have a future. Glen Beck, a
former talk show host called on the old to sacrifice their lives for the young.
The owner of one of the largest home-goods chains in America is staying open
because his wife had a vision that this curse will be over in a few days or
weeks. Liberty University has called its students back for the rest of the
semester. The Governor of Florida has yet to shut down the state, a place
teeming with older people and rising hospital stays. Mississippi’s Governor
refuses to shutter the state because “we are not China.” The President has
called for crowded churches on Easter Sunday, with people shoulder to shoulder.
What don’t people get?
China quickly shut down the city of Wuhan, all 20 million
people, and the death rate slowly began to slow down. Italy shut down the
northern part of the country, but too late. The entire country is now in
lockdown and the death rate is still rising, hundreds each day. Iran was slow to
shut down and its death rates are rising exponentially. The US death rate, and
we are at the start of the epidemic, matches Italy’s increased death rates. In
other words, it has only just begun. There is no way that any scientist, health
expert, or doctor would recommend opening the nation for business-as-usual as
early as two or three months, certainly not in weeks.
This crisis opened our eyes to how unprepared the nation is
for a crisis. The President will have to take his lumps for his management of
the crisis and for his mixed messaging, but it’s not all his fault. We have
never experienced an event that closed the nation in a matter of days, and we
were overwhelmed. Part of the problem is economics and part is logistics. The
last twenty years or more has seen an almost religious reliance on technology
to manage inventory to a finite degree, whether in companies or in hospitals.
If a hospital uses 1,000 surgical masks a month, why would it buy and store
5,000 masks? The business plan does not allow for surpluses. If a drug store
sells 12 items of a product each week, its inventory management system will tell
it to buy five more when it has sold seven. It is so ingrained in our processes that the idea of a surplus just isn't thought about anymore. The states and the federal
governments are supposed to have the large surpluses to be dispersed as needed.
But we don’t provide the money for that either. The states don’t have the
equipment they need to fight the virus, and the federal government is slow to
send relief. New York needs thousands of ventilators and the federal government
sends them 400. Hospitals are filling up quickly, but it took weeks to dispatch
the Army and Navy to lend a hand. Why?
The governors of the states and territories have taken the
leadership in this crisis. Maybe that is as it should be, but I question the efficacy
of 55 different approaches to a national crisis. Let’s look at the simple issue
of isolating in place. If we had uniform guidelines, every restaurant in the
country would be shut down except for take-out; all non-essential businesses
would be shut down including bars and weed shops. Schools, colleges, and universities
would be shut down, gatherings outside the home of more than two people would
be prohibited, and all transportation systems would be shut down to all by
essential workers. If we had uniform guidelines, we would not have college kids
celebrating spring break on the beaches. It wreaks havoc with the economy, but
it saves lives.
Those returning home from spring break need to shelter in
isolation for two weeks because they have all been exposed to the virus, simply
by being that close to so many people. A lot of people are leaving New York
City in an effort to avoid contamination. Whichever state they move to should
require them to isolate for two weeks. Why is it so hard to convince people to
do the right thing? Why don’t they listen to the scientists and doctors and
take the situation seriously? The United States is increasing the number of
virus cases faster than Italy.[i] Italy cannot
handle the increase in deaths, which is growing exponentially. Yet, governments
and individuals ignore the warnings, calling them a hoax, an effort by the
Democrats to make Trump look bad and false news. It is none of those.
I don’t get it!
