It was meant to be a relaxing day: sunny, warm for the time of year, blue sky, nothing on the schedule. Then I read the morning readings: online newspapers, favored blogs, unfavorable musings just to “keep the enemy closer.”[i] What could go wrong?

I read about a former president’s Texas rally, where he called his base of supporters to march in the streets if prosecutors across the country tried to take him to court for felony crimes, including trying to overthrow the government, to which he admits involvement. At that same rally, he stated that he had encouraged the Vice President to alter the results of the Electoral College votes because he had the right to do that.  

Then, there was an article reporting efforts by legislators and ultra-conservatives to ban books by the hundreds from school libraries. And to add interest to the day, I read an in-depth review of a new book by Barbara Walter, How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them. It was not to be a relaxing day no matter the sunshine in mid-winter.

Walter is a professor at the University of California San Diego. She spent thirty years studying civil wars. She has the chops to help us understand the phenomena. Her research spans the globe’s uprisings over the centuries. She concludes that there are three early indicators of potential civil wars.[ii]

The first is when a country begins to trend away from democracy or moves away from autocracy. The Polity Index developed by the Political Instability Task Force measures those movements using a +10 to -10 scale. They place the U.S. smack dab in the middle with other countries defined as anocracies, neither democracies nor autocracies. We can argue about our place on the scale,[iii] but data, developed over several decades, shows us moving further away from a true democracy than more of us think we are.[iv] Anocracies are most vulnerable to civil uprisings.

The second indicator is factionalism, defined as when a political party is based on ethnicity, religion, or race instead of ideology. This is the point where politics goes from being about the good of the country and more toward the interest of their members and their group.[v]

The third indicator is when a dominant group senses a loss of status reversal. On a Washington Post Live broadcast with Jonathan Capehart, Walter said that a large segment of Americans is experiencing status issues. She says, interestingly, that it isn’t Republicans vs. Democrats or whites vs. blacks so much as it is whites vs. brown people and Christians vs. Muslims and Nones.

If Walter is correct, we should prepare for more insurrections, for more street fighting. The “Troubles” in Ireland[vi] might be the model rather than Gray and Blue armies marching toward the capitol.

Last week, speaking before a Federalist Society meeting in Florida, the former Vice President stated the issue saying, “I had no right to overturn the election … The truth is there’s more at stake than our party or our political fortunes. If we lose faith in the Constitution, we won’t just lose elections – we’ll lose our country.”

Mike Detmer, a candidate for the Michigan Senate told his followers that they needed to show up armed to ensure that they can observe vote counting in the next election.[vii] He went on to explain that the Second Amendment is there to let the government know that the people are armed and ready to “lock and load.”

Thirty-four states have bills before them designed to make it more difficult for people to vote. Most will pass into law, including possibly a bill or two that allows the legislature to overturn the results of elections; although that was a bridge too far for the Speaker of the Arizona House who ensured the bill would not see the light of day.

Last week the National Republican Committee censured two sitting members of the House because they are willing to serve on the committee investigating the January 6, 2021 insurrection. The RNC described the assault on the Capitol as “persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.” Generally, ordinary citizens visiting the Capitol don’t bring war-grade guns while dressed as trained militia.

Then, I read a news article about the ban-the-books movement that engrosses the nation, often promoted as moms and dads seeking input into what kind of books are in the school library. A political candidate in Texas asked the state school board to review over 850 books that he and his supporters find objectionable.[viii]

The books on the list include classics used in grade schools and high schools for years. MAUS, a graphic novel about the Holocaust is very popular for banning because it has one drawing of a semi-naked woman in a bathtub, never mind that the book won a Pulitzer Prize.  Within weeks of its banning in a school district in Tennessee, it rose to #1 on the Amazon best-seller list.

If you want a teenager to read a book, ban it!

So, what is the point?

The U.S. is in a period of severe flux to be sure. Iron-clad truths are questioned, long-established institutions tossed about, and millions are seemingly willing to accept political power struggles as the new norm. All of these are moves away from democracy. They are power plays, always in the name of preserving our way of life. Is it serious? Yes! Will we outlive it? I think we can but who knows? We can if the majority of people erect a firewall to prevent armed insurrections, tearing institutions asunder, and call for renewed adherence to traditional approaches to governance. At some point, someone has to say, “Enough is enough.”

For the republic to survive, political parties must focus on ideology and programs that move us toward a more perfect union. We must come to grips with the idea that this isn’t our grandparent’s country. It is a younger nation with younger ideas looking for younger leaders. This cohort wants the people to rule, not some party. We need to accept the migration to urban areas where high-skill jobs await. 

We must remember what happened in other countries when the party and the party leader became more important than the free exercise of democracy. Where shall we start – Hong Kong, China, Russia, the USSR, Sudan, Ethiopia, Congo, Eritrea, Rwanda, Argentina, Chile, Uganda, Myanmar, etc? It always started with a small group discontent with changing power cells, loss of influence, or unhappiness with immigrants and the economic system.

 

In our current state of affairs, we have a political party hell-bent on making it difficult for people to vote. The most popular talking heads on cable TV continually foment distrust of opponents and transform public health precautions into political actions that keep the pandemic going. It’s the Proud Boys spewing white nationalism and anti-Semitism, then being described as “good people” by our national leader. It's a political party's strategy to create distrust of the electoral process. Book banning and book burning limits education rather than encourage it.

Each action is one small step in our national journey away from democratic ideals.  

The point is we have always criticized other countries for these same misbehaviors. Are we no longer any better than them?

Are we no longer the shining city on the hill casting a bright beacon for democracy?

Are we no longer us?

 

 

 

 

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[i]The Prince, Nicole Machiavelli, “keep your friends close and your enemies closer,” “One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.”

[ii] New York Times, 01/18/2022, How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them, Barbara F. Walter, PhD

[iii] A group sponsored by the CIA originally maintained the Polity Index. Many political scientists question its approach but generally use it as a reference to track political movement in a country, trends if not absolute progress.

[iv] We can argue that we are a republic, not a democracy, but that isn’t the point.

[v] NYT ibid

[vi] The Troubles lasted from 1960-to 1998. It began when Catholics demanded equal treatment from the Protestant ruling party, and it was a fight to free the country from England. 3,500 people died because of the conflict which included street fighting and assignations on a regular basis.

[vii] Detroit News, January 31, 2022

[viii] Matt Krause, a member of the Texas Legislature, who is running for Attorney General sent a letter to all school districts in the state asking them if they have any of the 850 books in their school libraries or in classrooms because the books might make students “feel discomfort, guilt, anguish … because of race or sex.”