Fragility!

Our world is in turmoil right now. Our nation is in turmoil. Too many pundits ask the question we do not want to answer – Is the U.S. a failed state or just a fragile state?”

The Britannica describes a failed state as one that “is unable to perform two fundamental functions of a sovereign nation-state – “it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. …Its citizens no longer believe that their government is legitimate, and the state becomes illegitimate in the eyes of the international community” So, are we a fragile state or a failed state? I do not think we are a failed state, but we must pay attention to how we move forward in the next few years. Democracy is fragile.

We know that we are a divided nation. A PEW study found that 47% of Americans believe the nation needs major changes and 67% believe their politicians are corrupt.[i] They disagree about how to reconcile the dilemma.

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned us that “We cannot afford a divided nation in a world in which nuclear power is matched by the growth of artificial intelligence, which removes all obstacles to accuracy and distance.”[ii] He reminded the audience that in 1974 he had said that “Societies do not grow by victories of one faction over another, but by reconciliations.”

The Guadian reports that 68% of Americans perceive a serious threat to our democracy, but 40% said a strong national leader was more important than having a democracy.[iii] Think about that! Nearly half of those surveyed believe that a civil war is at least somewhat possible in the next ten years. Think about that! The poll takers concluded that there is “continuing alienation from and mistrust of American democratic society and its institutions.” The events of January 6, 2021, make the survey’s conclusion a gross understatement.

We see dysfunction surrounding us every day. The top of our judiciary sees no problem with offers of expensive free vacations from litigants before the court. Too many of the judiciary and the Senators who advise and consent see no problem with the court system reflecting political beliefs rather than blind justice.

Our national legislature strains to muster the votes to elect a Speaker because a small faction of ultra-right-wing zealots demands total loyalty to their uncompromising agenda at the expense of compromise and reconciliation.

A former president continues to lie to his base about the verified results of the last election, ending a term in which he tore down as many of our institutions that provided safety, security, and the trust of the world community. 

In Foreign Affairs, Robert Gates, former Secretary of Defense, suggested what we should agree on; the world turmoil caused by our acknowledged enemies – China, Russia, Iran, and other despotic countries.[iv] He points out that both China and Russia want to restore their countries to the massive kingdoms they once were and to make them economic juggernauts. After World War II the U.S. and most of Europe agreed that one country would not invade another. Russia broke that agreement when it invaded Ukraine. Success there could encourage it to invade NATO nations to the west and give China the opening it needs to retake Taiwan. Putin has referred to the shutdown of the Soviet Union as “The greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20^th century.”[v]

China is pouring trillions of dollars into its Belt and Road Initiative, a strategy that intends to link many countries in Asia and Africa to China. They are building roads, harbors, and other infrastructure for poorer countries. The purpose of this is to increase their hegemony over much of the world, culturally and economically.

At the state level legislatures continue to pass laws that decrease people’s ability to easily vote or have representation that represents them all in the name of decreasing voter fraud, of which there is hardly any, or ensuring that the majority party continues to rule the state by the use of excessive gerrymandering.

So, here we are, a divided and dysfunctional nation hell-bent on arguing about what we do not agree on and apparently unwilling to agree on what we agree on. Russia, China, and other countries are trying to take over the world and find it hard for a majority in Congress to elect a Speaker that will last more than a few weeks or months.

Have we forgotten how many autocrats came to office through election by the people? The Nazi Party won enough seats in the Reichstag that Hindenburg was forced to appoint its leader as Chancellor. We saw what Hitler did to the world. Mussolini was appointed Il Duce when his fascist right-wing party was dominant in Italy. We saw what he did to the world. Franco was able to overthrow the elected Second Republic of Spain with the help of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. He led power until 1975. All were autocrats who espoused an ultra-nationalism, superior races, loyalty to the leader, and a nation-first agenda. They all tried to destroy democratic governments and nations. Democracies have no place for autocrats.

Could the U.S. suffer the fate of so many countries back in the 1940s? It could if we do not stop those who are trying to destroy democracy right now. Too many dream of the old days which were not our best days unless you were white middle class. Too many fear losing the advantage they have had for so many years.

Our democracy is still an experiment. It is a simple attempt, the first of its kind, to let “We the People” govern a nation bolstered by a legal system that the people believe to be fair, a legislature that works for all the people. Lincoln, in his report to the Congress on December 1, 1862, called it “The world’s last best hope” St. Augustine pointed out that fear is caused by “the loss of what we love.” My fear is that we could lose our democracy if the current trend continues. If Alexander Pope was correct that “hope springs eternal,” we may yet save our fragile best hope. But how?

[i] PEW Research, March 2021

[ii] Al Smith Dinner – reported by The Pilot, Boston, October 25, 2023.

[iii] Martin Pengelly, Guardian, August 30, 2022 @ 2:00 A.M.

[iv] Robert Gates, The Dysfunctional Superpower, can a divided America deter China and Russia? – FOREIGN Affairs, September 29, 2023

[v] Reuters, December 12, 2021 @ 9:59 A.M.